South Australian Derby: Pro punter preview, top pick and value

The South Australian Derby is a 2500m Group 1 race for three-year-olds, held at Morphettville Racecourse. Total prizemoney is $500,000. The race is held during the South Australian Autumn Racing Carnival, where it is the premier event for three-year-olds.

South Australian Derby: Alfie’s preview

Pace: Slow to Average

Map: A lot of horses who settle back in the run in this race. Son of Emperor to lead, with King of Pharaohs and Claidheamh Mor to sit outside lead. Key runner in Alegron if he jumps well can settle midfield and have a nice run. The 2nd fave Detonator Jack will sit back in the field.

Runner-by-runner

Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.

#1 Alegron [$2.90] The one to beat, was less than a length of Hitotsu in the Aust. Derby and won the 2800m St Leger last start.

#6 Detonator Jack [$4.20] The horse with the upside, in the right camp with the right jockey. The one who can knock off the fave, will just need to continue to improve.

#3 Jungle Magnate [$8] Will settle back and be trying to make up ground off an average tempo. Harleymoven has the SP profile over it from last start.

#5 Hayleymoven [$8] Been up a while and gets a tricky map from barrier 10. Does come out of the Chairmans and Port Adelaide Guineas which can produce a winner in this race.

#4 Commander Harry [$16] Ran 3rd to Detonator Jack LS and can’t see it turning the tables on him.

#11 Yaphet [$20] On the quick back-up, but another one who will be coming from the back, which may make it tough.

#7 The Nephew [$26] SPd at 26.0 last time it raced against Detonator Jack and hard to see it turning the tables.

#10 Water Into Wine [$41] Big step up from a BM64, last time it started a black-type race finished 9lgth back for an 8th.

I think this race has a long tail and would be surprised if these can win:
#9 Saint Tropez
#8 Son Of Emperor
#12 King Of Pharaohs
#13. Claidheamh Mor
#14 Sebastian The Fox
#15 Phere The Ex
#16Lady Chant
#18. Turfie
#19 Bring The Stars
#17 Texas Tea
#20 Six Foot Song

South Australian Derby: Alfie’s betting tips

I can’t see where the winner will come from outside of Alegron and Detonator Jack. I think Alegron is a deserved favourite of the two off figures, but Detonator Jack is in the right camp to be peaking for this. If Harleymoven still presents well in the yard and can get a nice run in transit it has the late speed to upset the top two, but I will be backing Alegron and Detonator Jack for a result.