NRL Friday Night Preview: Storm vs Manly

As well as providing his best value bets every week, our NRL guru Steve Green also previews every NRL game for members. Each week on the blog we’ll feature some of his match previews from the eight games. Check out his NRL Friday Night Preview below

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NRL Friday Night: Storm vs Manly

These two teams have developed a great rivalry and in terms of matches most likely to preview the Grand Final, this is the one for Week 1 of the finals.

Manly and Melbourne are able to pile on the points and with both squads looking very strong here, this is set to be a beauty.

For the Storm, they bounced back into form last weekend with their dominant win over the Sharks. Papenhuyzen in particular was back to his best, however I do think the Sharks played very poor at times and this will be a big step up in class for the Storm.

With Addo-Carr ruled out and Munster under an injury cloud, the Storm are vulnerable here and the line is a little too big. The last time these teams played in Round 21 we backed Manly with the plus 11.5 that was on offer and although they didn’t win, they did cover. If it was not for a few poorly defused kicks, Manly could have easily won that game.

In terms of Manly’s chances to win, of course the key man is Tommy T. Enough ink has been spilt praising what a brilliant season he has had and while I am happy to take Manly at the plus, I am still not sure whether Tommy T can carry Manly for the win.

Manly forced into late reshuffle as Munster firms for Storm

📬 Late Mail 👉 https://t.co/S1uTpWHEI9 pic.twitter.com/wJsTVKtJ8C

— Fox League (@FOXNRL) September 9, 2021

Tommy T is at his best against weak teams. His game revolves around identifying a weakness in the defensive line and using his explosive pace and power to break them open.

In 2021, Tommy T has played most of his footy against weaker teams (out of his 15 NRL games this year, 5 of them are against the top 7 teams and 10 of them are against the bottom 9 teams).

His performance against the stronger teams is a lot less dominant:

• Top 7 Opponents (Tries per game: 0.6, Try Assists per game: 1.6, Line Breaks per game: 0.6, Tackle breaks per game: 4 and total running metres per game is 179.5).
• Bottom 9 Opponents (Tries per game: 2.3, Try Assists per game: 1.8, Line Breaks per game: 2.9, Tackle breaks per game: 9 and total running metres per game is 244.5).

So, while Tommy T has destroyed some teams this year (and admittedly he dominated at Origin level), he has been a lot less effective when playing against a strong defensive line of some of the better NRL clubs.

I would have had the Storm about 2 or 4 point favourites in this one. Members have already Manly with the plus and I’m happy with that position

Storm vs Manly: Suggested bet

I do think this game will be very close, and I like the half time draw option paying 10.0 or better.

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