AFL Grand Final preview: Best bet plus Norm Smith tips up to $26

In good news for neutral fans, the 2022 AFL Grand Final will be contested by the two best teams.

Geelong and Sydney finished first and third on the ladder respectively. Melbourne finished second on the same number of wins as Sydney, and just 2.6% superior in the percentage column… but you can’t argue with Sydney’s form as they’ve gone 12-2 since Round 11, compared with Melbourne’s 6-8.

As for Geelong, they’ve lost just four games – the last of which was in Round 9 – on their way to an 18-win season, with the four losses coming by an average margin of just 14 points.

The biggest of those four losses? Back in Round 2, by 30 points to the Swans. But that was the night of Buddy’s 1000th goal and all the strangeness that came with it…

🎁 Win! AFL Grand Final Competition

Enter here Just tip a series of outcomes on the big game… whoever gets the most correct is the winner!

First prize One month of any Champion Bets racing or sport membership

Second prize $50 Amazon Gift Voucher

Recent meetings

2022 Round 2 Sydney 107 def Geelong 77 (SCG)

2021 Round 7 Sydney 90 def Geelong 88 (SCG)

2020 Round 18 Geelong 69 def Sydney 63 (Metricon Stadium – neutral venue during COVID bubble)

Recent meetings in finals

2017 Semi Geelong 98 def Sydney 39 (MCG)

2016 Preliminary Sydney 97 def Geelong 60 (MCG)

The AFL Grand Final coaches

This is an area of remarkable similarity… both Chris Scott and John Longmire took over stable, experienced club lists in 2011 and – thanks also to shrewd recruiting and development – have largely been able to keep their clubs competitive for their entire senior coaching careers.

Longmire has an overall win rate of 63% and has delivered finals in 10 of his 12 seasons. For Scott it’s 70% and finals in 11 of 12 seasons.

Scott became a premiership coach in his first year, 2011, and also made the AFL Grand Final in 2020, losing to Richmond. Longmire won the flag the next year, 2012, and was on the losing side in 2014 and 2016.

AFL Grand Final: Geelong forward line / Sydney backline 

The Cats have the best forward line in the league. Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins share top billing but there’s other weapons in small forward Tyson Stengle and Gary Rohan, who is constantly maligned but does add an extra dimension to the attack. Throw in Patrick Dangerfield, who spends plenty of time forward and is a handful in any one-on-one battle, and you have an imposing combination.

The potency of this forward line means that if Geelong get on top and have a significant edge in the inside-50 count, they’ll have one hand on the cup.

So while Sydney’s backline will certainly have their hands full, they’re no pushover. The McCartin brothers have been a revelation and allow Dane Rampe to keep away from the monsters. This will be important as Rampe can help control the tempo and keep the Swans playing their own game. Nick Blakey and Jake Lloyd provide the drive off half-back. Blakey could put in a Norm Smith-worthy performance or could just as easily have a shocker… he continually bites off the difficult kick. When it goes right it goes very right, but it’s feast-or-famine type stuff if his radar is off.

Edge Geelong

Market is up… which we way are we going punters? #AFLGrandFinal @TopSport_com_au

— ChampionBets.com.au (@ChampionBetsAU) September 19, 2022

AFL Grand Final: Sydney forward line / Geelong backline 

The Swans certainly have goals in them, but their game is built for the tight confines of the SCG. They averaged 97 points per game there this year, while at the MCG (albeit across only three games) it’s 83 points. The Swans forwards will need to be prepared to cover ground and keep the Geelong defenders moving, hopefully opening up space behind them for Franklin and Tom Papley.

Papley is unlikeable to most of us, but he’s in goalkicking form with 21 from his past nine games – all Swans wins. If he catches fire early he’ll be in Geelong’s face and igniting the crowd, which is another situation where Geelong’s veterans would need to wrestle back and control the tempo. Bews or Kolojashni will get first crack at keeping him quiet.

Geelong rely on Jack Henry and Sam De Koning as key backs – neither are stars but both are solid and will rely on their teammates to stymie the Swans’ forward supply. Zac Touhy and Tom Stewart are both massive weapons off half back – the Swans will be doing all they can to keep them out of the game. Interestingly, when they last met in Round 2, neither had much of an impact as the Swans recorded a comfortable win. If Stewart is allowed to play his own game he’ll largely dictate the tempo of the match. He’ll be a priority for Longmire..

Sam Reid looks likely to miss and that’s a big loss. He’s been the forward marking target and that might be needed when those caught in chaos up the ground just want a get-out kick. As legendary as Franklin is, he’s as ineffective overhead as he’s ever been.. Does John Longmire throw a couple of magnets around and pull a surprise here?

The wildcard could be Issac Heeney. He’s not in great form and some would say he hasn’t lived up to the promise he showed earlier in his career. He booted 5 goals in Sydney’s win over Geelong in Round 2… if he can pull another one like that out of his hat, it would probably be the difference.

Edge Geelong

AFL Grand Final: Midfield battle

Both midfields are more workmanlike than star-studded. Geelong has big names in Selwood and Dangerfield, though both are obviously past their prime and play reduced roles these days – the ability of Geelong to transition to this is a testament to Scott. Selwood is a bulldog and will throw himself into every contest, but veterans like Issac Smith, Cam Guthrie and Mitch Duncan will be just as important in controlling the tempo and settling things down.

The Swans group is led by Luke Parker along with ballgetters in Callum Mills, James Rowbottom and Chad Warner. They strike a great balance between shutting down opposition stars while getting the ball going their own way as well, as they’ve shown in recent weeks.

There’s no star ruckmen here… Tom Hickey has had a reasonable season and will shoulder the load against the rotating Rhys Stanley and Mark Blicavs. The Swans have been using Sam Reid as relief for Hickey when required, so will need somebody else to fill this role. Either way, the ruck isn’t a particular strength for both sides and they should cancel each other out.

What’s most important is that Sydney so often present as greater than the sum of their parts. Their on-field organisation is elite and allows them to exert maximum pressure. This was most evident in their convincing Qualifying Final win over Melbourne. The individual brilliance of Oliver, Petracca (albeit hobbled) and others didn’t matter… the Swans’ pressure overcame them.

Edge Sydney

AFL Grand Final: Best bets and verdict

Without wanting to sit on the fence, it’s hard to see anything but a close game here. I give Sydney the edge in the middle, but Geelong’s superior forward line could mean that even with less opportunity, they put more points on the board.

Grand Finals can of course blow out when they get away from one of the teams, but I don’t see that being the case here. Neither are young, inexperienced teams that could get emotionally overcome by the occasion and lose hope. I think they’ll keep it close.

Verdict Geelong by 9 points

Best bet Geelong by 1-39 points $2.07 with TopSport

$2.11

AFL Grand Final: Norm Smith Medal tips

It’s a wide open market with Dangerfield a $7.50 favourite. I like to spread my bets here to cover a number of eventualities and give a better chance of a profit. You don’t win big but you cover your bases! I also try to take into account who’s voting on it… it’s past players and journalists, and they have a habit of favouring bigger names and those who play the game “the right way”. So small bets for me on…

• Lance Franklin $26: If he kicks a few the judges could be enticed by the romance of a legend winning the medal…
• Joel Selwood $19: He’s the footballer’s footballer… you can guarantee the judges love him, which will work in his favour if he has a good day.
• Issac Heeney $14: If the Swans win, he may well have played a big part.
• Tom Stewart $13: Has the ability to really dominate a game.
• Luke Parker $11: Sydney’s General, everybody loves the way he plays.
• Jeremy Cameron $9.50: The best player on the ground in my opinion – basically a saver.
• Patrick Dangerfield $7.50: A saver in case he turns on a vintage performance.

Do your maths so that you break even or make a small profit on the bottom few, and win more on the rest.