Pakenham Cup Pro punter preview: Best bet at a great price!

A fantastic Victorian Spring Carnival “officially” comes to a close with the Listed Pakenham Cup a 2500-metre handicap. Prizemoney is $300,000.

Pakenham Cup 2022: Trevor Lawson‘s preview

Track Pakenham has sometimes shown a tendency to favour leaders and that’s where you’ll want to be. It’s a gruelling finish with a long, slight uphill rise over the closing stages, so it’s hard to make ground.

Speed The pace is okay here. Vegas Knight, Good Idea, Swelter Magic and Nobel Heights will all go forward and make for a fair bit of speed.

📺 Video preview

Pakenham Cup: Runner-by-runner

Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.

6 Kissinger [$4.40] has been up a long time but is racing well and can hold his rating here. A good chance here.

2 Milford [$4.40] is on the seven-day backup from Caulfield and is jumping 700 metres in distance. He hasn’t been to this distance range since he was a three-year-old. I’m happy to risk him.

7 Wyclif [$6.50] improved dramatically last start at Flemington when finally getting onto a dry track. He’s had a month between runs here but he has run well in the past with that setup, and has run well at this distance range. The horse to beat for mine.

8 Nobel Heights [$7.00] is another who improved last start when he got a dry track for the first time this prep at Cranbourne. He can hold his rating here and is a good chance for mine.

3 Future Score [$8.50] is getting on in years now as an eight-year-old. He was okay in the Ballarat Cup but it’s been a while since he’s won. Just a rough chance for me.

5 Fifth Position [$9.00] won well on Ballarat Cup Day. He’s going to this trip for the first time and probably gets a firm track. His best runs are all on wet tracks so I’m happy to risk him here.

At his 11th start this prep, Fifth Position is stepping up to 2500m in the Pakenham Cup 🔥@MickPriceRacing pic.twitter.com/IIOQdqhsJq

— Racing.com (@Racing) November 30, 2022

9 Vegas Knight [$11] led and narrowly won at Moonee Valley over 2040 metres last start. I’m not sure he really profiles like a 2500-metre horse however. I’m happy to risk him.

1 Sound [$13] is on the quick back-up from the Zipping Classic where he didn’t get into the race. He’ll get back here again but unlike a few here, he is good at the trip.

4 Good Idea [$14] is another one backing up from Caulfield. The trip is no problem which gives him a rough chance here. He’ll race on the pace.

11 The Awesome Son [$26] hasn’t been suited at his past couple of starts. His best-ever run was at this track. He has a rough chance, but I’d want big odds to back him.

10 Swelter Magic [$51] isn’t good enough for this.

Pakenham Cup: Betting strategy

Best Bet Wyclif

I have Wyclif on top, ahead of the current favourites in the market, so happy to be on him here. He looks to set up well for this and gets the going and distance to suit.

Good luck!