Read on for AFL Round 20 early mail and value betting leans for each game…
AFL Round 20: Fremantle v Melbourne, Friday night
Early prediction: Fremantle
The value: Total points under 144.5 at TopSport
- Fremantle beat Melbourne in Round 11 by 38 points (in Melbourne)
- Melbourne has ZERO tackles inside 50 last week, that should improve this week
- Last 4 meetings have seen a highest combined score of just 156 points
AFL Round 20: Collingwood v Port Adelaide, Saturday afternoon
Early prediction: Close
The value: Port +6.5 at TopSport
- Pies win/loss is 13-5 and Power is 8-10, yet these teams have basically the same percentage this season
- Port has been very competitive all year, including the last two weeks against the top two teams
- The Pies are probably the biggest surprise of 2022 thanks to nine straight wins including a number of clutch victories
Sydney v GWS, Saturday afternoon
Early prediction: Sydney
The value: Sydney by 1-39 points at TopSport
- GWS are battling, only winning 1 of their past 6 games
- Sydney are going well with 6 wins from their past 8 games
- Sydney derbies tend to be fairly close… only 1 of the past 6 has been 40+. There’s also been 2 one-point games and a two-pointer
St Kilda v Hawthorn, Saturday twilight
Early prediction: Saints
The value: Saints by 1-39 points at TopSport
- Hawthorn has comfortably beaten the bottom three teams over the last three weeks
- Saints don’t really blow teams away and have recorded just two big wins this season
- St Kilda has won the last four in this head-to-head match-up
Geelong v Western Bulldogs, Saturday night
Early prediction: Geelong, but not a blowout
The value: Geelong by 1-39 points at TopSport
- Bulldogs’ last win in Geelong was back in 2003
- Geelong just keep on winning as they’re just very steady when the pressure is on
- Stewart returns this week for Geelong
Adelaide v Carlton, Saturday night
Early prediction: Carlton
The value: Carlton -16.5 at TopSport
- One team is playing for Top 4, the other is firmly in the bottom 4. Line feels too small
- Carlton have travelled reasonably this year, 2-2 away from Melbourne
- Adelaide have two wins in the past 12 games, against the pathetic Roos and Eagles
AFL Round 20: Gold Coast v West Coast, Sunday afternoon
Early prediction: Gold Coast
The value: Suns by 1-39 points at TopSport
- 12 of 14 all-time games between these two have been won by the home team
- Gold Coast are not in great form and don’t look like winning big, but an easy kill beckons here
- With 4 straight losses West Coast may have checked out for the year… but it’s not as though they ever checked in
Richmond v Brisbane, Sunday afternoon
Early prediction: Close game
The value: Total points over 175.5 at TopSport
- Tiges should have won their last three and against Freo they found yet another way to miss out on the four points
- Following a poor performance against the Dees, Brisbane has scored 108, 90, 99, 100 in their last four games
- Brisbane is bottom six in the competition on some key defensive metrics
Essendon v North Melbourne, Sunday twilight
Early prediction: Essendon easily
The value: Essendon -42.5 at TopSport
- Early money for the Bombers with punters taking the already short prices >> 1.19 >> 1.11
- Essendon have won 4 of last 6, biggest margin of defeat just 10 points, so clearly playing well.
- North were without avenues to goal against Hawthorn last week, losing the Inside 50 count – 68 to 38.
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