Read on for AFL Round 22 early mail and value betting leans for each game…
AFL Round 22: St Kilda v Brisbane, Friday night
Early prediction: Goals!
The value: Total points over 169.5 at TopSport
- Saints had a couple of good wins against bad teams before being beaten convincingly by an undermanned Cats last week
- Brisbane’s powerful attack has scored 90+ points in each of their last six games at an average of 103 ppg
- Under the roof at Marvel this one should go over the total
AFL Round 22: Western Bulldogs v GWS, Saturday afternoon
Early prediction: Bulldogs to win but hungrier Giants to keep it close
The value: Bulldogs by 1-39 points at TopSport
- Bulldogs have won last the 3 meetings by average of 28 points
- Bulldogs won the clearances, contested ball and inside 50s v Freo, but lost the game
- Giants won inside 50 tackles by 16-1 versus Essendon last week, a huge result
Adelaide v North Melbourne, Saturday afternoon
Early prediction: Adelaide
The value: Adelaide -32.5 at TopSport
- Adelaide have bounced over the last two weeks with good wins against Carlton and West Coast away
- North have resumed regular programming since their blip win over Richmond a few weeks back
- North have never beaten Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, with an average losing margin of 44 points
Gold Coast v Geelong, Saturday afternoon
Early prediction: Cats
The value: Cats by 1-39 points at TopSport
- 11 wins in a row to the Cats by an average of 33 points has them hot flag favourites
- The Suns’ last three games at Metricon have all been decided by under a kick
- Geelong is clearly the better team but Gold Coast can be competitive at home
Melbourne v Carlton, Saturday night
Early prediction: Melbourne
The value: Melbourne -22.5 at TopSport
- Melbourne have won their last 6 matches against Carlton
- Melbourne on a bounce-back mission after getting overrun by Collingwood last week
- Carlton were smashed 47-38 in clearances by Brisbane, it likely gets worse without Cripps
Fremantle v West Coast, Saturday night
Early prediction: Freo
The value: Freo -38.5 at TopSport
- Freo’s season stuttered slightly but got back on track with a good win over the Dogs last week
- West Coast are so dedicated to the rest of this season that they had a farewell party game for a player… with two games still remaining
- Freo won the Round 3 Derby by 55 points, and West Coast are even less interested now
AFL Round 22: Richmond v Hawthorn, Sunday afternoon
Early prediction: Tiges
The value: Richmond by 1-39 points at TopSport
- Hawks have won 4 of their last 5, albeit against teams ranked 11th, 18th, 17th and 15th
- Tiges are playing well and have to keep winning to play finals
- Hawks average losing margin this season is 14, while Richmond’s average winning margin is 26
Sydney v Collingwood, Sunday afternoon
Early prediction: Close
The value: Collingwood +19.5 at TopSport
- Looks an evenly matched game on paper
- Quite a big line, Collingwood looks the value
- Last four meetings at the SCG are 2-2 with an average margin of 11 points
Essendon v Port Adelaide, Sunday twilight
Early prediction: Bombers in a true dead rubber
The value: Essendon H2H at TopSport
- Port have won the last 4 meetings by an average of 45pts, but the most recent was just 15pts
- Bombers lost every stat category against GWS in their worst effort in weeks, can bounce
- Port likely to make some changes as lack of forward line really hurt them against Richmond last week
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