The Ultimate Form Guide Betting Podcast: Episode 7 – Trainers
“Trainers are less important than the jockey, especially when the horse is well exposed. The market probably overplays some of the bigger trainers, especially when they’re going through a hot streak. You’re more likely to find value amongst the no-name trainers when they get a horse on the up.”
Cameron O’Brien
“My focus on trainers is to really understand their habits and patterns and their tendencies for when they’re trying to get their horses to peak. Certain trainers fire first-up and others don’t. For example, the Gerald Ryan and Phillip Stokes stables tend to go well fresh, whereas Tony Gollan and Bjorn Baker runners tend to underperform first-up.”
Daniel O’Sullivan
“A lot of the bigger trainers have patterns because they have so many horses in work. There will be certain factors such as stage of preparation, race distance, or jockey that are positive or negative.”
Trevor Lawson
“Knowing trainer’s specialties is important, for example, John Sargent’s strong record on fillies and mares out to middle distance and staying trips. Chris Waller tends to get longer preparations out of his horses than someone like Gerald Ryan.”
Mark Rhoden
“Trainers are very diverse. I look at strike-rate and consistency more than the profit on turnover. I also look at the habits of trainers, particularly the stage of preparation and the number of days between runs. Some trainers just don’t like to have them wound up fresh.”
James Jordan
“There are definitely trainers who you want to be with on certain tracks, especially their home tracks. And lay every runner away from those home tracks.”
The Professor
“Some trainers do very well when they send their horses interstate, while others do particularly badly. It takes great skill to have a satellite stable operating well.”
Rob Waterhouse
“The major rule is to avoid lower-ranked trainers. We compared trainers who won more than 20% of their starts for 12 months to those who won less than 10%. The top trainers did 12% better in terms of ROI. The winners kept winning and the losers kept losing, no matter how many sub-categories we looked at.”
Barry Meadow
“Each trainer has their own wheelhouse that they specialise in. For example Justin Warwick over a journey, or Simon Miller with sprinters.”
Terry Leighton
“We’re looking for trainers with a great record with horses first-up or early in their maiden prep as they’re the ones we’re not as confident with in terms of our pricing. We’re looking for that little bit of a lead from the marketplace. But when those horses are backed some times the market over-reacts and those horses get in a little bit too tight. So if you can find the early value, great, but if you miss the price and the market seems to steamroll then don’t be afraid to leave these ones out late.”
Tristan Merlehan
“Other than 2YO races I wouldn’t say trainer form is high on my list of form factors. I may just lower my stake on a horse from a stable that’s out of form.”
Wayne Finter
“I’m really big on wanting to know what a trainer does with a horse after a high exertion race. Do they want to back it up again quickly? Because that can actually be a major disadvantage if trainers aren’t tuned into knowing if their horse needs more time to come good.”
Vince Accardi