Australian Derby: Pro punter race preview and top pick

The $2 million Australian Derby is considered one of Australia’s premier races for three-year-olds. Run over 2400 metres, the race is one of the main features on the first day of The Championships at Randwick, which is the highlight of the Sydney Autumn carnival.

Australian Derby 2022: Alfie’s preview

It’s a big field but for mine, there’s eight real chances. The ground makes it tough though… seems to be the case every week at the moment!

Track Like pretty much every Saturday in Sydney at the moment, it’ll be very heavy!. It might favour those that are forward of midfield and closer, but it’s hard to say exactly.

Speed The tempo here should be fast. Zoumon, Castleragh Kid, Character and Lukey Luke should settle forward. Hitotsu will be forward of mid-field.

Runner-by-runner

Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.

Hitotsu [$3.60] had a good win first-up in the Australian Guineas. The only concern is the heavy track, jumping 800m. With Maher and Eustace however, he’s in the right camp to do it.

Regal Lion [$5.50] is on the quick back-up and is rock hard fit. Chance.

Forgot You [$8.50] will need to improve and for Hitotsu not to handle the wet, to really be a chance here.

Character [$12] is another off the quick back-up after a win. I have him as one of the main chances.

“He’s an unknown in the wet but his fitness is very good and he’s a proper good horse.”

Ciaron Maher has no idea how Hitotsu will cope with heavy ground in Saturday’s $2m Bentley Australian Derby but he has no doubt about his class.

READ: https://t.co/v6iIfY6pvb pic.twitter.com/yIkvh9TLX1

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) March 31, 2022

Alegron [$16] has no wet track form and will need to improve to win this.

Castlereagh Kid [$17] has been in great form, but couldn’t handle the fast pace last start. A query at Group 1 level for mine.

War Eternal [$21] is one where wet is actually a plus. But he’d need to improve whilst others fail in the conditions. Place chance.

White Noise [$41] is another Kiwi on the quick back up. The market price is probably right at this stage

This is a very big field, I have the rest of them longer and wouldn’t consider them. But really, it’s a wide open race in unknown conditions for many of them, so we have to tread very carefully: Can’t Go Wong [$19], Maurices Medad [$51], Raging Bull [$34], Elzamee [$34], Zoumon [$41], Clyde [$81], Benaud [$11], Footlights [$31], Sea Treasures [$61], Akahata [$91] , Mediaro [$61], Lukey Luke [$91].

Verdict

I have it down to 8 main chances, so it’s very open. If it was dry I would say Hitotsu, but I would want around $5 to back him. I don’t have many that present much value at the moment, and the bottomless track makes it tough. My advice, again, is to tread very carefully!