Worth $500,000 and held toward the end of the Spring Carnival, the Ballarat Cup is one of Victoria’s major country cups. The race is run under handicap conditions at Listed grade, over 2000 metres.
Ballarat Cup 2022: Trev’s preview
Track The track is a Heavy 8 at the moment and might not get much better. The key will be the weather on raceday, but it’s had a lot of rain over the past week and might not improve too much.
Speed The speed is alright here. Grand Slam, Polly Grey and Sireleo Miss will go forward, along with Bermadez if he jumps well. The pace will be genuine.
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Ballarat Cup: Runner-by-runner
Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.
3 Atishu [$4.20] won the Matriarch last start with a terrific performance. She has handled the wet in the past, but I’d prefer her on a track that’s better than heavy.
4 Bankers Choice [$4.40] ran well last start in the Champions Stakes. He handles the wet and is a good chance, but does look short odds in the market in my opinion.
2 Polly Grey [$7.50] is suited here if the track is genuinely wet. She maps to roll forward and prefers the going soft.
13 Lord Vladivostok [$9] ran well last start at 1800m and handles the wet track. He’ll be strong late and is a chance at the odds.
5 Grandslam [$10] ran okay first-up. He’s won third-up in his last two preps at this distance, so might want one more run. I’d prefer on a dry track too.
10 Bermadez [$12] has been disappointing of late and is stepping to this trip for the first time with a new rider on. I’m happy to risk him.
9 Sirileo Miss [$15] went a bit hard in front last start in the Matriarch. There’s a slight concern about her running a strong 2000 metres, but the wet suits her. Rough chance.
7 Foxy Frida [$15] was well beaten last start in the Matriarch, but looked to jar up on a firm track. She’s better suited here on softer ground. This trip suits and she’ll be strong late.
Jockey Matthew Cartwright has a lovely book of rides on Ballarat Cup Day, see who his best winning chance is 👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/Q8CmwSffJ7
— Racing.com (@Racing) November 17, 2022
14 Tokorangi [$26] put in a terrific run in the Matriach from well back. She draws wide again here so will have to do the same. She’s entitled to be this price.
1 Desert Icon [$26] has been up a while but maps well and is back in trip, which suits him. He’s not the worst chance here.
12 Flash Aah [$26] wasn’t suited in the Cranbourne Cup and is on the quick back-up here. He’s out in trip which may help, but not sure about him on genuine wet ground. Rough chance.
6 Dark Dream [$34] put in an honest run last start in the Kyneton Cup. He settles handy and drops significantly in weight here. Rough chance.
11 Future Score [$26] and 15 Flash Feeling [$26] aren’t good enough to win this for mine.
Ballarat Cup: Betting strategy
Top pick Atishu
Best value Foxy Frida
I’ve got the field around $5 so it’s a pretty even race for mine. I do have Atishu on top, but I’d want a drift before I backed him. Foxy Frida is definitely the value pick for me – I’ve got her equal second pick and she’s definitely a bet at the price.
Good luckl
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