Canterbury Stakes: Pro punter preview, top pick and betting strategy

The Canterbury Stakes is a Group 1 race over 1,300 metres in autumn. As the name implies, the race was held at Canterbury Racecourse for much of it’s history. More recently, it was shifted to Rosehill Racecourse and most recently, to Randwick Racecourse. Total prizemoney is $500,000. The race dates back to 1929, when the first edition was won by Phar Lap’s great rival Amounis.

Canterbury Stakes 2022: Alfie’s preview

Track

I’m writing this preview on Thursday and with heavy rainfall in Sydney, if the meeting goes ahead I will be expecting a Heavy 10. Remarkably the track played fairly last week under similar conditions, so we can only base this on things being similar. Perhaps they’ll be off the rail late in the day.

Speed

There’s below average speed here with with Kolding, Special Reward and Forbidden Love going forward. Lighthouse and Law of Indices sit behind the speed.

Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.

Runner-by-runner

Forbidden Love [$2.50] is solid favourite in my eyes. She ran a peak rating last start and is 3/4 on heavy tracks. She sits in a good position here and Hughie is in a purple patch of form. She’s also on the quick back-up so is hard fit.

Lighthouse [$4.40] is a talented mare that has a figure to win. She has a win on the heavy, but I’m not sure how heavy that track really was on the data I use. She has the talent, but the bottomless track is the worry. Clear clear second pick.

For those wondering about @cmaherracing mare Lighthouse. She is definitely running in Saturday’s group 1 Canterbury Stakes and @eustacedj says she will love the conditions.

That means she definitely won’t run in the Coolmore and most likely won’t run in the ASM in 2 weeks’ time

— Damien Ractliffe (@DamienRactliffe) March 2, 2022

Private Eye [$5.50] has some talent but for me is not a bet at the current odds. First-up on a bottomless track is a concern, even after three trials.

Laws Of Indices [$5.50] will need to improve second-up to give the top couple a shake.

Special Reward [$15] is a little bit below the level of the top couple in the market. The bottomless track is also a concern.

Dice Roll [$26] hasn’t run a rating first-up to really threaten here.

I can’t see any of Dalasan [$26], Wild Planet [$19] or Kolding [$34] troubling them here.

Betting Approach

Forbidden Love is the top pick here for me, especially as she’s proven in wet conditions. I’d want a bit better value and she’d be a bet for me at $2.90+.

Lighthouse is the clear second pick for me and looks to be approaching a backable price of around $4.50.