It’s one of Australia’s premier three-year-old races, the time-honoured Caulfield Guineas over 1600 metres.
Caulfield Guineas 2022: Trev’s race preview
Track It’s between a Good 4 and Soft 5 at the moment. There’s plenty of rain on Friday so it’ll get a bit softer. I’d say a Soft 6.
Speed There’s actually no natural leader here, so it’s a bit speculative. I think Tijuana probably goes to the front with Dashing, with Elkington Road handy. Foujita San may go forward if it runs.
Runner-by-runner
Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.
3 Golden Mile [$2.80] is a tricky horse to price. He was super impressive over 1400m when ridden cold two starts back in the Ming Dynasty, then raced on the pace last start in the Golden Rose and was well beaten with a quite slow final 200m. The obvious upside here is JMac going on.
2 Berkeley Square [$5] ran well last start when he had little luck in the straight, but still got up and won. He looks to have the wood on those he beat that have come here.
1 Tijuana [$7.50] had every possible chance the other night at The Valley in what was his best run. It’s hard to see him going to another level here.
10 Amenable [$14] ran on well in the Guineas Prelude in the rain. He looks a progressive type who’s better suited out in trip. He’ll be strong late.
13 Elliptical [$15] ran well second-up from a break and hit the line hard. He looks suited out in trip and can get a cosy run here from barrier 1. A chance at odds.
5 Bank Maur [$19] ran well last start, but draws 15 here which may take him out of the race. He’ll have to go a long way back and I’m not sure he has the class to win.
4 Millane [$20] is racing fairly but not sure he has a big spike rating in him to win this. Very rough chance.
7 Meridius [$21] ran well first-up off a spell, then ran on well last start in the pouring rain. Barrier 16 is a slight concern but he has a chance at odds.
9 Osipenko [$21] ran well on debut in Sydney then was narrowly beaten second-up. He resumed at Caulfield in the Guineas Prelude where he failed, but it was run in the pouring rain and I’m prepared to forgive horses in that race. He’s right in this if he can run to his Sydney figures.
15 The Fortune Teller [$26] ran okay last start when the blinkers went on. It’s hard to see him improving much more off that. Rough chance.
6 Foujita San [$31] ran better last start after two failures. He needs a dry-ish track but the key negative here is he’s drawn barrier 16. Another rough chance.
11 Elkington Road [$31] is undefeated and looks to still be on the up, but he looks to lack the class to win this. Would surprise.
The rest aren’t quite good enough to win this for mine…12 Sir Bailey [$34], 14 Lethal Thoughts [$41],17 Angry Skies [$51],18 Muramasa [$67],16 Dashing [$91],8 Skyphios [$101].
Betting strategy
Top pick Golden Mile
Best value Osipenko
I’ve got Golden Mile on top. I’d probably want slightly better odds, but I’m not far off the market. But I don’t think he’s a real standout, so an upset wouldn’t surprise. I think I’ll be looking to spec a couple of promising types on raceday… primarily Osipenko which is very nice odds for a Waller runner.
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