Group 1 Turnbull Stakes: Pro punter preview, top pick and best value

Turnbull Stakes 2022: Trev’s race preview

Track It’s a Soft 5 at the moment and there’s no more rain predicted, so you’d have to think it’ll be pretty good Saturday afternoon.

Speed Knights Order and Nurmerian should come across from wide gates to take it up, with Smokin’ Romans up the inside. Profondo, Gold Trip and Surefire will sit just off the speed. Hezashocka and Great House go back.

Runner-by-runner

Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.

12 Gold Trip [$3.60] ran really well at Caulfield last start, carrying a fair bit of weight. He’s third-up now at 2000 metres with Jamie Kah in the saddle, maps well here and can handle any ground. Very much a deserved favourite for me.

2 Duais [$4.60] is going okay in Sydney, but is a little hard to judge at the moment. She was just fair last start in the George Main, which was run in a bit of a strange manner. The track was quite wet. She won the Australian Cup third-up in the autumn but I thought she was going better then than she is now. She’s probably headed to the Cups… I think she probably wants one more run.

4 Profondo [$9] has rated below his best at his last two runs in the Tramway and the George Main. It’s a long time since he’s run to his best, which he would need to in order to win this.

8 Inspirational Girl [$12] ran okay first-up in the Feehan. She won second-up in the autumn, albeit over a shorter trip. She’s going to 2000 metres for the first time here. Happy to risk.

11 Young Werther [$12] ran okay first-up. He rated through the roof at this run last year when running second to Incentivise. But I’m not sure he can repeat that rating here, second-up off a long break. Some chance but I would want good odds.

10 Alegron [$14] is racing well. He produced his best figure last run but I’m not sure if he can improve off that. Only a rough chance.

3 Numerian [$18] is racing well too…  he’s an honest horse but is probably lacking the class for this. Only a rough chance here.

1 Knights Order [$19] ran well when resuming, winning the Chelmsford. He knocked-up last start when going too fast in front. He’s a rough chance here with the top weight.

5 Great House [$20] ran well first-up and can improve here second-up. Another one with some chance.

6 Smokin’ Romans [$20] ran well third-up at Caulfield. Another who’s only a rough chance and would have to go to a new level to be a good chance.

15 Maximal [$20] didn’t have much luck first-up in the George Main. He’s better suited here on the dry track, but is also just a rough chance.

16 Surefire [$20] ran well first-up, and then has rated down on two wet tracks since. He gets back on the dry here and also back to his favoured distance range. Can run well here at a nice price.

9 Chapada [$26] is a good honest horse who gives his all. Both runs this prep off a long spell have been good. He can improve, some chance at odds.

17 Hezashocka [$34] is racing well, albeit on wet tracks. He loses Kah here which is a negative. It would surprise if he won.

13 Crystal Pegasus [$67] hasn’t been suited in two runs this prep on heavy tracks. He gets a dry track here and won third-up in the autumn, though only in a Benchmark race. Very rough chance.

14 Luncies [$81] resumed over 1500 metres, running well. His best run was over further on Cup Day last year. Possibly wants another run to reach a peak. Rough chance.

7 Milford [$151] is not good enough to win this.

Betting strategy

Top pick Gold Trip
Best value Surefire

Gold Trip is certainly the one to beat for me. He ticks most boxes and I’ll be on him. At a bigger price, I think Surefire represents value at the price… he’ll like the ground and the distance. So something small on him as well.