Read on for AFL Round 23 early mail and value betting leans for each game…
AFL Round 23: Brisbane v Melbourne, Friday night
Early prediction: Lions at home
The value: Total points over 170.5 at TopSport
- Both teams are in the same boat – a win earns them the double chance but a loss could see them drop to sixth
- Dees forwards need to lift but Brisbane’s defence has looked shaky at times
- Lions’ last four games at the Gabba have averaged 191 points and all have gone over the total
AFL Round 23: GWS v Fremantle, Saturday afternoon
Early prediction: Close… Freo in a low-scoring game
The value: Total points under 149.5 at TopSport
- Freo can go into Top 4 if they win and Collingwood lose
- Giants won marks v Bulldogs 165-91, a clear shift in game style
- Freo did what they needed to v West Coast with 26 scoring shots to 12
North Melbourne v Gold Coast, Saturday afternoon
Early prediction: Low scoring
The value: Total points under 184.5 at TopSport
- Two teams in very ordinary form round out their seasons
- Will come down to who is more switched on… and who has switched off for the season
- Neither team has reliable avenues to goal
Geelong v West Coast, Saturday twilight
Early prediction: Nothing but a proper smashing by Geelong
The value: Geelong -62.5 at TopSport
- End of season can’t come fast enough for West Coast
- Geelong will treat this as a training run and win by 100+
- Geelong hoping to get through without injuries, two games clear on top
Essendon v Richmond, Saturday night
Early prediction: Tigers
The value: Richmond -23.5 at TopSport
- The Tigers have recovered from a number of agonising mid-season defeats to get on a roll at the right time
- Essendon embarrassed themselves at home last week in a listless loss to the Power and then couldn’t even sack their coach in a professional manner
- Bombers may put up an early fight but Richmond look far too strong
Port Adelaide v Adelaide, Saturday night
Early prediction: Should be reasonably close
The value: Crows +19.5 at TopSport
- Quite a muted Showdown with both teams only looking forward to Mad Monday
- It might have come against poorer sides, but the Crows at least have winning form
- Pay little attention to Port’s training-run win over a pathetic Essendon
AFL Round 23: Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs, Sunday afternoon
Early prediction: Bullies
The value: Bulldogs by 1-39 points at TopSport
- For the Bulldogs to make the finals they need to win this game and then barrack for Collingwood to beat Carlton
- Hawks had recorded 4 wins and a close loss in the 5 matches prior to last week’s belting by the Tigers
- Bullies haven’t blown a team away in quite a while and the Hawks should fire up for big Ben McEvoy’s final game
Carlton v Collingwood, Sunday arvo
Early prediction: Tight game
The value: Collingwood H2H at TopSport
- Collingwood were outworked by Sydney, the scoreboard flattered them
- Carlton have lost their last 3 and need the win to make finals
- Collingwood were due a down week after 11 wins in a row, will they bounce back?
St Kilda v Sydney, Sunday afternoon
Early prediction: Sydney
The value: Sydney -18.5 at TopSport
- Saints have been mediocre all year and meet a top-class opponent in sparkling form
- Sydney halted the Collingwood juggernaut with relative ease last week
- They just met in Round 15, with Sydney saluting by 51 points
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