Read on for AFL Round 15 early mail and value betting leans for each game…
AFL Round 15: Melbourne v Brisbane, Thursday night
Early prediction: Cracking game
The value: Lions +6.5 at TopSport
- Finally a full round of footy again and this one kicks off with the match of the season so far
- Both of these teams have 10-3 records and an almost identical percentage
- Brisbane is the fitter team with better recent form and go into this as underdogs
Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn, Friday night
Early prediction: Bulldogs in a close one
The value: Hawthorn +15.5 at TopSport
- Hawks hold an 8-3 record in this matchup over last 10 seasons
- Hawthorn coming off the bye, regain Gunston and Lewis
- Bulldogs have injury concerns with Weightman, Duryea to miss.
AFL Round 15: West Coast v Essendon, Friday night
Early prediction: Close
The value: West Coast +16.5 at TopSport
- Essendon to get Parish back, but lose McGrath
- West Coast’s 3-goal defeat last week by Geelong was their best performance of the season
- Can’t trust either team, so happy to take the points in for the Eagles
Carlton v Fremantle, Saturday afternoon
Early prediction: Close
The value: Freo H2H at TopSport
- Freo coming off the bye. Prior to that were wins against Hawthorn, Brisbane and Melbourne.
- Freo get Taberner back to stretch Carlton’s backline, and Fyfe will be much fitter.
- Carlton had chances against Richmond last week but are struggling for continuity in all positions at the moment
- Freo’s big forward line will be the difference
AFL Round 15: Geelong v Richmond, Saturday afternoon
Early prediction: Tigers
The value: Richmond +1.5 at TopSport
- Cats are chasing their fifth straight win as they build toward yet another Top 4 campaign
- Dangerfield is a likely big in for them this week, but that’s offset by Richmond getting Dusty back
- Tiges have six wins and a controversial loss at the SCG from their last seven games
Sydney v St Kilda, Saturday night
Early prediction: Sydney
The value: Sydney -14.5 at TopSport
- Both beaten last week, but the Swans kicked poorly and really only had one bad quarter
- Saints were worse than the scoreboard indicated, having 14 fewer scoring shots than the Bombers
- Swans are 4-2 at the SCG this year
AFL Round 15: North Melbourne v Adelaide, Sunday afternoon
Early prediction: Adelaide
The value: Adelaide -18.5 at TopSport
- North’s losing streak has extended to 11, and it’s hard to see where it will end.
- North have only covered the line twice this year
- North simply cannot score: 53 points is their highest total in the past 6 matches
Collingwood v GWS, Sunday afternoon
Early prediction: Collingwood
The value: Collingwood -14.5
- Collingwood coming off four straight wins, including thrashing the Dockers in Perth and beating Melbourne on Queen’s Birthday
- GWS defence looks very leaky – with the exception of their win over a hapless North, they’re conceding big scores every week
- Off-field scandals won’t worry the Pies once they step onto the ground.
AFL Round 15: Port Adelaide v Gold Coast, Sunday afternoon
Early prediction: Close
The value: Suns +14.5 at TopSport
- Gold Coast are in good form with five wins from their last six
- Port started the season slowly and have alternated wins and losses over their last five
- The Suns are playing well enough to be very competitive here
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