NRL Semi Finals: Betting previews & predicted scores

As well as providing his best value bets every week, our NRL guru Steve Green also previews every NRL game for members. Each week on the blog we feature some of his match previews. Check out his NRL Semi Final Previews below

NRL Semi Finals: Panthers v Eels

The Panthers loss to Souths was the only upset of Week 1, with the Bunnies springing a classic Bennett-inspired ambush.

We saw it with Queensland in the 2020 Origin series. Coach Bennett can give teams the confidence to beat the more talented opposition.

Through aggressive and relentless defence, the Souths pack manhandled the Panthers forwards from start to finish. Yeo and Kikau were the only Panthers to make any kind of yardage, with guys like Martin, Fisher-Harris and Capewell kept strangely quiet.

Luai was again a little quiet, continuing his post-Origin form slump, while Cleary himself failed to take control for his team.

While it will not be panic stations, the Panthers will be starting to doubt themselves on the big stage. Although they have demolished many opponents over the past two years, their inability to win some of these big games will be leading to some self-doubt.

Another interesting area to watch is the fullback position. While it is clear that Coach Cleary likes Edwards, Crichton was the Panthers’ best player last weekend. At 1 he is a lethal weapon compared to the more reliable and steady hand of Edwards.

A semi-final which is crucial in more than one way. #NRLhttps://t.co/LyWgiMPSHm

— ZeroTackle.com (@zerotackle) September 14, 2021

Although Crichton on the wing does provide the Panthers with a strong-looking backline, the Panthers desperately need their strike outside back to ice their chances this weekend against the Eels.

While the Eels did the job against the Knights, I thought the Knights could have got the win if they had a little more possession. With 55% possession for the match, the Eels proved too strong on a hot day up in Rockhampton.

But the Knights still had plenty of lucky on the edges, with the Tuala hattrick showing the Eels are still very vulnerable due to their compressed defensive structure.

Although the Eels were able to bash the Knights by compressing and numbering up in the middle of the ruck early in their sets, the Panthers have the skill and confidence to shift the ball to the edges and let Momirovski and Burton have a chance at creating something for their outside men.

These two teams have a great rivalry and the Eels will come out firing early here, hoping to exert their dominance in the middle.

But I think the inclusion of Leota and Sorenson in the middle, as well as Edwards at the back and the dropping of Staines out wide, means the Panthers have named a team far better equipped to deal with the physical nature of finals footy.

Predicted score
Panthers 30
Eels 12

NRL Semi Finals: Manly v Roosters

I was a little concerned how Tommy T would go against the rock solid defence of the Storm, but even I was surprised with just how quiet Manly’s superstar fullback was last weekend.

Although the score was 40 – 12, one of the Manly tries came against the run of play from a wayward 20-metre kick that was fumbled by Lumelume, so the Storm absolutely walloped Manly in this encounter.

Manly’s main two issues were errors from their outside backs and a forward pack that failed to win the middle. Harper in particular was dreadful and if you go through the Manly team, their starting centre pairing of Harper and Parker do not exactly scream Premiership material. Coach Hassler much be tempted to swing a late change and put in Suli and Walker, who surprisingly, was Manly’s best player against the Storm.

As for the Manly forwards, it was an annihilation. Not one Manly forward made over 90 metres, with guys like Aloiai (51 metres), Schuster (21 metres) and Jake Trbojevic (46 metres) being totally ineffective in their carries.

Before Manly and the Roosters meet again tomorrow, I’ve written a long rewind of that amazing 4-0 finals game from 2013.

Thanks to @gorgeousgrose and @PhilGould15 for their brilliant descriptions of what was a brilliant match.#NRLManlyRoosters #nrl https://t.co/lDyJZhWUAz

— Matt Bungard (@TheMattBungard) September 16, 2021

While I am sure Manly can bounce back here, it was a worrying performance for their Premiership credentials.

As for the Roosters, they were far from convincing in their thrilling win against the Roosters. If Herbert throws a good pass, or Walker’s field goal is called back for the Roosters forming a wall, then the Titans are the ones progressing last weekend.

The Titans were able to bust tackles across the park last weekend, with the Roosters missing a huge 46 tackles. Keighan, Lam, Hutchinson and Crichton were all guilty of missing multiple tackles, and with guys like Tommy T looking to make amends, I think the Manly attack will prove too strong for a Roosters defensive line that will finally collapse under the weight of injuries.

The loss of Verrills at 9 and Taukeiaho at starting prop has also further weakened their line-up in the middle. The Premiership winning hooker is another crucial loss for a team that is really running short on number 9 options, while Taukeiaho joins Collins as key props that Roosters will sorely miss this weekend.

Although the Roosters may have one last surprise left in them, I think their run comes to an end against a Manly team that will be keen to bounce back from last weekend’s disappointment

Predicted score
Manly 30
Roosters 12