Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes: Pro punter preview and betting strategy

The Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes is Group 1 handicap over 1400 metres, run at Caulfield Racecourse during the Spring Carnival. The race is named after Sir Rupert Clarke, who was a former chairman of the Victorian Amateur Race Club (VATC), which later became the Melbourne Racing Club.

The race has been around since 1951, and has been through a number a name changes over almost 70 years. It was the Invitation Stakes until 1974, when the name was changed with a string of different sponsorships which saw it become the Marlboro Cup. Show Day Cup, Vic Health Cup, Eat Well Live Well Cup and the Dubai Racing Club Cup. It was renamed for Clarke in 2006, following his passing.

The race has held Principal Race or Group 1 status since its 1951 inception, and has always been run over 1,400 or seven furlongs. Its place on the calendar means it often attracts horses aimed at major races later in the Spring Carnival, as thus often boasts a high quality field.

Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes 2022: Trev’s preview

Track The track is currently in pretty good condition and around a Good 4. Rain is predicted Friday afternoon and Saturday so it may soften up a little, but nothing too significant. I would expect a Soft 5 at this stage.

Speed There’s good speed here and they should have a crack, being a Group 1. You want to be forward over the 1400m at Caulfield. If I Wish I Win gets a run he should be able to go forward – there’s pace outside him. Buffalo River and Tuvalu will go forward.

Runner-by-runner

Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.

18 I Wish I Win [$3.10] is favourite but also second emergency. He’ll run clear favourite if he gets a run. I’ve got him quiet short – he was super-impressive in his first run in Australia at Caulfield. He’s drawn out here but there’s good speed in the race and he should be able to go forward and get in for a clear run. Definitely the horse to beat.

8 Ayrton [$5] resumes here off a short break. He’ll sit handy in the run. I have him equal second-pick with the favourite in.

15 Tuvalu [$6] also resumes here. He went out absolutely flying last prep, with wins at Flemington at his last two starts. He maps to get a good run on the speed here and will handles the wet if the rain comes.

10 Showmanship [$6.50] ran well when resuming at Randwick. He has a good record at this trip, maps to sit midfield-ish and will strong late.

17 Dragon Leap [$8] is unders for mine – I have him at quite big odds, I don’t think he’s up to this.

5 I Am Superman [$13] has a very big ask from Barrier 19. He certainly won’t want it too wet.

7 Graceful Girl [$14] is on the quick back-up here. The only time she’s raced and won over this trip was off a short back-up too. Kah will ride her if I Wish I Win doesn’t get a run. I think she’s a good chance as long as the inside is not off.

16 Chaillot [$15] resumes for the new trainer in price and Kent Jr. Her best only makes her a rough chance here for mine.

2 Laws Of Indices [$21] resumes here but is also only a rough chance at his best for mine. He’s up in weight.

11 Red Can Man [$21] is actually going along okay, and ran fourth in the Bobbie Lewis last week. But this is another step up and he’s only a rough chance for mine.

12 Buffalo River [$21] is just not really a genuine Group 1 horse in my book. I’m not sure he’ll get to dictate in front here, and he would want a genuine wet track.

14 Bankers Choice [$21] is going okay but will get back and be last. There’s just too many horses of better or equal ability in front of him.

4 Callsign Mav [$31] is not going very well at the moment, and is also back in trip which I don’t like.

6 Just Folk [$34] gets the blinkers on first time here. If it is a wet track (say, a Soft 6 or worse) then he’s the one I’d be promoting. He loves the wet and would be a chance at big odds if so.

The rest aren’t up to this in my opinion, it’d be a shock to see them winning: 20 Open Minded [$34], 9 Hilal [$12], 3 Sinawann [$15], 13 Aysar [$18], 1 Dalasan [$20], 19 Age Of Chivalry [$26].

Betting strategy

It all depends on a few things, doesn’t it? I have I Wish I Win as my clear top pick, but he’s still second emergency and needs to get a run. He’d definitely be the horse to beat. After that I have Ayrton and Tuvalu equal, so Tuvalu looks the better value bet if the favourite comes out. And as I said, if it is wet, I think there’s some genuine value out wider with Just Folk – if we have a wet track!