Chelmsford Stakes: Expert preview, top pick and value play

The Chelmsford Stakes is a $250,000 Group 2 weight-for-age race run at Randwick Racecourse in early September Run over 1600 metres, the race is often use by connections of star horses as a first-up or second-up start in spring preparations.

The Chelmsford Stakes was first run back in 1895, and has a long list of racing greats among its past winners. These include Gloaming, Limerick, Phar Lap, Rogilla, Beau Vite, Bernborough, Delta, Tulloch, Gunsynd, Ming Dynasty, Kingston Town, Might And Power, Lonhro and Winx.

Chelmsford Stakes 2022: Alfie’s preview

Track It’s currently a Soft 7. There’s a few showers forecast on Friday and then more predicted on Saturday, so there’s a big query of how wet it will get. Keep an eye on things.

Speed The tempo is only average here. Knights Order and Entente will lead and then it gets tricky from there. Mounga, Montefillia and Surefire should all settle in midfield, with Surefire having the toughest draw.

Runner-by-runner

Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.

9 Surefire [$3.40] was great first-up and you would think will only progress from there. He’s up in grade here but the winning performance last start says he should handle it.

15 Montefilia [$4.40] will like it if there’s rain about. First-up will be the query and her best is over slightly more ground.

1 Mounga [$6] has now been very disappointing at his last two starts, rating well down. So he will need to improve sharply to win this. Has the talent.

14 Benaud [$8] will have to improve again to win this… both his ratings and his SP profile say that.

2 Numerian [$12] is another starting off his prep here. They’ll be looking at later in his prep over longer.

4 Stockman [$15] is one of the few horses second-up here, but I think he will need longer.

3 Knights Order [$18] will lead them out and give them something to chase. 1600m looks too short however.

5 Kukeracha [$34] is a sneaky chance at a price if it gets into the Heavy range. First-up will be the query, but he finished 1.5 lengths behind Zaaki in the Hollindale Stakes last prep… so there is undoubted talent there.

6 Great House [$34] is just starting his prep and will need longer.

The others aren’t up to this for mine: 8 Entente [$34], 13 Alegron [$20], 10 No Compromise [$31], 7 Crystal Pegasus [$26].

Betting strategy

Top pick Surefire
Value pick Kukeracha

While quite short in the market at the moment, Surefire was fantastic last start and looks to have further upside.

As long as it’s wet, which it should be, Kukeracha presents value for mine each-way. In the conditions he’s capable of at least slipping into a place.

Finally, just keep an eye on Montefilia as well. She’s a yard watch for me here, I just want to see how forward she is in her preparation. If she looks good she might also be worth a play.