Read on for AFL Round 19 early mail and value betting leans for each game…
AFL Round 19: Richmond v Fremantle, Friday night
Early prediction: Fremantle
The value: Freo H2H, $1.88 at TopSport
- Richmond have ruled out big guns Lynch and Martin already
- Dockers are 3-1 in Melbourne this year
- Richmond “hate going to Marvel Stadium” to quote the coach, have lost past 4 there
AFL Round 19: North Melbourne v Hawthorn, Saturday afternoon
Early prediction: North’s winning run ends at one
The value: Hawks -19.5 at TopSport
- Hawthorn has comfortably beaten two of the bottom three teams in consecutive weeks and now take on the current wooden spooners
- North Melbourne got the ‘new coach bounce’ to record a stirring victory last week, albeit against a very inaccurate Richmond
- They’re likely to lose key forward Nick Larkey who was subbed off late against the Tigers with a foot injury
AFL Round 19: Sydney v Adelaide, Saturday afternoon
Early prediction: Sydney easily
The value: Sydney -38.5
- Last time they met was R2, 2021 with Sydney winning by 33 points
- Sydney have been very effective at home this season with a 6-2 record
- Adelaide have lost 9 of last 11 with wins over just West Coast and North Melbourne in that period
AFL Round 19: Port Adelaide v Geelong, Saturday afternoon
Early prediction: Cats
The value: Geelong by 1-39 points, $2.12 at TopSport
- Geelong are purring with eight straight wins and only one of those was even close
- Port has been good at home this season but the Cats have enough quality and experience to win again
- The Power have only lost one game by 40+ points all season and that was way back in Round 2
AFL Round 19: Brisbane v Gold Coast, Saturday night
Early prediction: Brisbane
The value: Brisbane -22.5 at TopSport
- Brisbane retain a stranglehold on this fixture, winning 9 of the past 10 (the loss by 5 points)
- Gold Coast looked very poor last week and are off a 6-day break here
- The Lions to re-establish the Gabba fortress after a rare loss at home due to COVID outs two weeks ago
AFL Round 19: Bulldogs v Melbourne, Saturday night
Early prediction: Melbourne, comfortably
The value: Melbourne -8.5 at TopSport
- Last six meetings have produced three wins each
- Bulldogs need to keep winning for any chance of finals
- Melbourne were better last week against Port for a 14pt win
AFL Round 19: Carlton v GWS, Sunday afternoon
Early prediction: Blues easily
The value: Carlton -26.5 at TopSport
- The Blues were off a short break and long road trip last week but were outclassed by the Cats last week
- They need a percentage-boosting win here if they’re to have any chance of making the Top 4
- The Giants have a very poor record this season against Top 8 sides
AFL Round 19: Collingwood v Essendon, Sunday afternoon
Early prediction: Collingwood in a tight one
The value: Collingwood -5.5 at TopSport
- Collingwood won this meeting in Round 6 but Essendon won the 3 previous meetings
- Collingwood have won 8 matches in a row and could be Top 2 bound
- Essendon have won 4 of last 5 but are no chance for finals.
AFL Round 19: West Coast v St Kilda, Sunday afternoon
Early prediction: St Kilda
The value: St Kilda by 1-39 points, $2.10 at TopSport
- Meeting of two teams in very ordinary form
- The Eagles are 1-8 at home this year – the trip west doesn’t instil much fear for visiting teams
- Impossible to tip the Eagles on form, but the Saints probably don’t have enough to really blow them away.
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