The Decider! State of Origin Game 3 preview & value bets

State of Origin Game 3 preview from NRL pro punter Steve Green… including predicted score and suggested bet.

State of Origin Game 3: Preview

Although the Blues played great in Game 2, I thought the Maroons were very poor in the middle. Papalii, Big Tino, Nanai and Arrow all played less than 40 minutes, forcing the likes of Kaufusi, Collins, Carrigan and Capewell to push out big minutes.

The fatigue being faced by the Queenslanders in the middle was evident with the three tries scored by Luai and Cleary in the second half. The Panthers halves played direct and got through with ease. It was a game that lacked the Origin intensity towards the end and so I can understand why the Blues were heading into this one as heavy favourites.

NSW selection

But then all hell broke loose, with McLean’s fairytale return to the Blues over before it started due to injury, and J Saifiti mysteriously called in to replace him. I do not mind the Saifiti brothers, but they are both playing ordinarily this year. To choose Jacob in front of Campbell-Gillard and Klemmer shows that Coach Fittler certainly has his favourites. That selection, along with having Crichton ahead of Wighton, are big enough selection errors to open the door for the Queenslanders.

Queensland selection

While the loss of Munster is absolutely huge, I do think Queensland are well placed to cover it. Although Dearden has been brought in and will get some game time, I’m tipping Hunt starts in the halves, with Grant expected to play more minutes and Dearden to be used in the second half only.

Hunt is one of the form halves in the competition and has proven he can step up in Origin. With DCE steering the ship, a running Ben Hunt could actually create a lot of headaches for the Blues defence and I think the market has overreacted to the loss of Munster.

Similarly, while I like Taulagi and I admit I thought Corey Oates’ days of playing Origin were long gone, I think this swap is another one where Queensland may not suffer as much as the market seems to think. Oates has never played better footy than he is in 2022 and at home, with plenty of his teammates, he is a very handy back-up winger for Coach Slater to draw on.

How it plays out…

On my ratings the Blues have a slight edge, but when you factor in the home ground advantage, I can barely split these teams. Because I also think Hunt will play a lot of footy in this one, and in key positions, I like his odds for Man of the Match.

The big risk for Queensland is the defence of Gagai and whether he gets shown up again.

The big risk for NSW is that their forward pack fails to provide a platform and the Panthers combinations are unable to combine effectively.

I think the ruck will be policed different in this one and Queensland will get the rub of the green at home.

State of Origin Game 3: Predicted score

NSW 18
Queensland 18

(NSW to win in Golden Point)

State of Origin Game 3: Recommended bets

Queensland +9.5 $1.90 at TopSport

$1.95

Queensland H2H $3.45 at TopSport

$3.50