Read on for AFL Finals Week 1 early mail and value betting leans for each game…
AFL Finals Week 1: Brisbane v Richmond, Thursday night
Early prediction: Tigers
The value: Richmond -5.5 at TopSport
- Richmond has been incredibly consistent with 11 wins, one draw and four losses by under a kick over the last 16 games
- Lions have a very strong H&A record in the Fagan era but have been poor in finals, losing 5 of their last 6 (and all but one of those was at the Gabba)
- Neither Brisbane’s midfield nor defenders are always accountable for their opponents and that poses a problem against a team that moves the ball as well as the Tigers
AFL Finals Week 1: Melbourne vs Sydney, Friday night
Early prediction: Melbourne
The value: Total points under 161.5 at TopSport
- The Dees won 10 straight to start the season, mixed their form mid-year before unleashing their best performance of the season in Round 23 to grab 2nd spot on the ladder
- Melbourne is battle-hardened, finals proven, relatively healthy and look hungry to make a Grand Final this season at their home ground
- Sydney has a strong record (6-2) against fellow finalists this season and play a brand of football that should stand up in finals
- Total points scored in the last four games of this H2H match-up: 134, 125, 113, 137
- Total points scored last year in each game of the first week of finals: 153, 121, 147, 129
AFL Finals Week 1: Geelong v Collingwood, Saturday twilight
Early prediction: Collingwood to keep it close
The value: Collingwood +16.5 at TopSport
- Last 10 meetings favour Geelong 6-4
- Biggest margin in those is 68pts to Geelong. The other 5 wins average is 13 pts, so Collingwood usually play well vs Geelong.
- Average Marks Inside 50 – Geelong 15 to Collingwood 10. That’s a big gap.
- Collingwood have won 11 games this season by less than 2 goals. They are never out of the contest
AFL Finals Week 1: Fremantle v Western Bulldogs, Saturday night
Early prediction: Freo with authority
The value: Fremantle -11.5 at TopSport
- Last 10 meetings favour Fremantle 6-4, most recently in Round 22 with Freo winning 95-78 in Melbourne
- Bulldogs average just 78 points over last 8 games, dropping from 107 for the 8 games prior. Can they kick a winning score?
- This is Freo’s first final since 2015 but they tuned up well against GWS in Round 23 with 69 Inside 50s
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