A week in the life of our new NFL expert analyst

TG has over 20 futures bets with staking advice across a number of different markets such as season win totals, division winners and the Super Bowl. Join NFL Tips now to get access!

Our new NFL guru goes by the name TG, and his record shows he’s one of the sharpest NFL analysts in the USA.

So how does he do it? Like most of today’s serious punters and analysts, he relies on an in-depth data model to sort the myriad of statistics and crunch the numbers for him.

But that’s not all there is to it… Here, TG steps us through his typical week that leads to his official bets being finalised and sent to members.

(Note, all times below are local USA time for TG. We’re about 15 hours ahead!)

Monday night

Monday Night Football

Tuesday morning

I load the prior week’s scores into my model to produce the performance report that I send out, and then close out the prior week.

Without looking at the lines already posted by the bookmakers, I take a look at the coming week’s games. Here I come up with my own initial view of how I think the games will go and what I think a “fair” line is. This is where I start to come up with my game-by-game analysis.

It’s important to note I have not run my data model yet, but I’m already creating a view of how I think the games will go. It’s the first step in my process, which is a mix of data analysis but also my own judgment. I think it’s important to integrate both.

Tuesday afternoon

Time to crunch some numbers. For the previous week’s games, I gather all the statistical information that I collect on a weekly basis – it comes from many different sources – and load that into my model.

At this point I will also load in the market’s initial lines for the week to get an early look at what value my model shows for the coming weekend. I then use this information to challenge my own thoughts from Tuesday morning. If I’m significantly different to the market, we need to work out why… either the market has missed something, or I have.

Wednesday morning

I compile as much additional information as I can on what will impact this week’s games: the latest news on injuries, weather, trends and officiating crews. Any of these things may impact my personal views on these games or change my model inputs. This is why you may see me reference podcasts or articles that make certain points, or quote stats that I think are particularly relevant. If it’ll impact a game or challenges something I thought, then it’s important information.

Thursday

I update my model for any line changes in the market and it’s now that I start to decide the wagers I want to make for the weekend.

I also make my Thursday Night Football pick.

I would say about 30% of my wager decisions are made by this time

Friday

From here it’s basically repeating what I did on Thursday afternoon… updating my model for any line changes and other new information. I do this a couple of times as things chance, but hopefully it is more confirming what I thought rather than making major changes at this point.

By the end of Friday I’ve generally made a final call on ~95% of the action I am going to place. I finish betting previews and send them to members.

Saturday – Sunday morning

It’s basically just another repeat of inputting lines and new information. At this stage this is usually uneventful and it’s rare that there’s major changes that we didn’t already know about. I finalise any last bits of action I was waiting on and publish again if necessary.

In summary…

What I hope this shows is that my model output is a significant part of the wagers I place, but it is NOT the only thing that I take into account. I like my members to understand that, and it’s why there are times my previews show that I have a different view than what my model says I should do. It’s by no means something that happens every week, but there are times I disagree with the model and I spell out to members exactly why.

What members get each week…

• TG’s betting preview of every NFL game: This includes a rundown of key factors for the match and each team’s chances, as well as a true odds line.
• Best bets: the highest-value betting plays each week that make up his formidable record of profits. Each best bet includes recommended stake and odds.

There are two releases of bets and previews each week:

First release Midweek, prior to Thursday Night Football

Second release Saturday, prior to the rest of the weekend’s matches