Read on for AFL Semi Finals early mail and value betting leans for each game…
AFL Semi Finals: Melbourne v Brisbane, Friday night
Early prediction: Dees
The value: Melbourne -18.5 at TopSport
- Brisbane is approaching ‘bunny’ status against Melbourne, with the Dees having won the past four meetings by an average of 44 points.
- It’s worse recently, with Melbourne winning by 64 points in Round 15 and 58 points in Round 23 – both within the last 10 weeks.
- Brisbane is lucky to even be here, courtesy only of a terrible Richmond defensive lapse last week leading to a Daniher game-winner
- Melbourne also lost, but to a super-slick Sydney outfit.
- Granted they don’t play here often, but Brisbane hasn’t won at the MCG since 2014.
AFL Semi Finals: Collingwood v Fremantle, Saturday night
Early prediction: Close
The value: Freo +11.5 at TopSport
- Two of the season’s biggest surprise packets square off in what should be a genuine Finals battle
- Collingwood were good enough to earn the double chance but it’s worth noting that their last eight wins have all been by under two goals
- They lose vice-captain Taylor Adams to a groin injury last week and DeGoey had scans this week on his shoulder
- From 4 games in Victoria this season against fellow finalists Fremantle has 3 1/2 wins – beating Melbourne at the G, Geelong at GMHBA, Bulldogs at Marvel and drawing with Richmond
- Freo plus the points looks the best value in what looks very likely to be a close game
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