$1m Silver Eagle: Expert punter preview, top pick and best value

The Silver Eagle at Randwick is the main lead-up to The Golden Eagle, the $10 million spring race for four-year-olds at Rosehill.

Silver Eagle: Alfie’s preview

Track No surprises here… it’ll be very heavy!

Speed The speed here is just average. Lavish Girl, Vilana and Mr Mozart will be in the Top 3. Brigantine, Global Ausbred and Cotehele will be in behind the lead. Espiona, Converge and Kiss Sum have tough maps.

Silver Eagle: Runner-by-runner

Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.

2 Mr Mozart [$3.60] has won on the heavy before, but they did not play as real heavy tracks. He’s by Snitzel so should handle a bog track. He’s certainly the one to beat.

12 Waterford [$7.50] is off a 28 day break but with a tick-over trial and is from the Waller camp. He’ll still need to improve to win.

3 Startantes [$8.50] will need a track that she can run on with. She’s been disappointing this prep. I have her longer than the market and I’m risking her, although last time I did that she won her Group 1 in the Tatt’s Tiara!

4 Vilana [$8.50] has a very tough task, first-up on a Heavy 10. The blue colours are flying but it’s still a massive ask.

14 Espiona [$9.50] has been a touch disappointing this prep. It’s a tough map, but she has the talent.

8 Brigantine [$11] is another from the blue camp and gets a nice run on the map. The heavy track is a question mark.

9 Loch Eagle [$12] has an okay figure on a bog track, but will need to improve a length. Also a tough map.

13 Lavish Girl [$12] gets a great run, was good first-up on a Heavy 9 and will appreciate the step-up in distance. Melham comes up to ride.

5 Kiss Sum [$15] has a very tough map and McEvoy has some decisions to make. He has some quality figures to win this, but the map is the question.

11 Maurices Medad [$26] has put in all of his best runs on dry tracks, but his breeding says should handle wet… so that is a question mark. Place chance for mine..

7 Ranch Hand [$51] has a couple of outlying figures that could win this, so on the right day he can snag a win. The question is just if this race is the one in fifty times he does it!

I doubt the rest are up to this. A win from them would really surprise: 16 Tonneofgrit [$51], 10 Minsk Moment [$34], 18 Stray [$101], 6 Flying Crazy [$51], 17 Global Ausbred [$151], 15 Cotehele [$61].

Betting strategy

Top pick Mr Mozart
Best value Lavish Girl

It’s always tough to make predictions with the weather and track sure to be the big issue… I would say bet late to get the best idea of conditions. I have Mr Mozart clearly on top as the one to beat. For some value, I think Lavish Girl wouldn’t surprise at each-way odds – she ticks a lot of boxes.