Caulfield Cup: Pro punter preview, video and betting strategy

The Caulfield Carnival winds up with the $5 million staying classic, the Caulfield Cup. Here’s pro punter Trevor Lawson on the race…

Caulfield Cup 2022: Trev’s preview

Track It’s a Heavy 10 at the moment. I’m not sure how much it’ll improve on raceday, but there’s no rain predicted on Saturday. The rail is out 6 metres and you’d think they’ll look to get wide and come down the middle in the straight. They won’t go right out to the outside fence however, the surface out there is prepared so they can’t do that.

Speed Knights Order will lead from Numerian, with Smokin’ Romans and No Compromise handy. Nonconformist and Vow And Declare need to decide on going forward or back. Gold Trip sits midfield with Duais. Benaud goes back.

📺 Video preview

Runner-by-runner

Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.

17 Smokin’ Romans [$4.20] ran well and won well in the Turnbull. He drops in weight here and gets Jamie Kah on. He races on the pace and handles all conditions. He has a lot of positives and is definitely the horse to beat.

SMOKIN’ ROMANS SMOKES THEM IN THE TURNBULL STAKES!!@cmaherracing pic.twitter.com/utsLBKnfeL

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) October 1, 2022

10 Benaud [$8.50] ran second to Alegron two starts back and was honest last week in the Might And Power. He’s on the quick back-up here but will need to go back. He’s some chance, but I want double figures to back him.

9 Alegron [$11] improved dramatically second-up and steps out in distance here third-up. He was third in the ATC Derby third-up last prep. Looks decent value.

3 Knights Order [$12] looks the leader here and is racing well. But he’s just a rough chance for mine given the weight.

6 Nonconformist [$12] ran well in this race off a seven day back-up last year. He gets the same setup here out of the Might And Power. I think he can improve here and is a good chance.

1 Gold Trip [$14] is fourth-up here and batter suited back on the wet track. I think the weight will pull him up a bit. Rough chance.

2 Duais [$15] isn’t going as well as last year. She held her ground last start in a slowly-run Turnbull. She can improve here. Some chance.

12 Inspirational Girl [$16] worked home okay in a slowly-run Turnbull last start. She should be ready to improve here. The concerns are a wet track and Barrier 1. I’d want decent odds.

4 Montefilia [$21] was poor last start at Randwick on a wet track. She can improve off that but I’d also want long odds to back her.

8 No Compromise [$21] won The Metropolitan narrowly on heavy ground. I’m not sure he can improve off that. Rough chance.

11 Great House [$21] is third-up here and can improve but is another I’d want big odds to back.

19 Durston [$21] has a very rough chance if he gets a run.

7 Vow And Declare [$26] is racing honestly but is a big query on really soft ground.

13 Maximal [$26] was good in the Turnbull, running second, but looks a dry tracker so I’d want good odds.

15 Chapada [$61] is racing well. He ran sixth in this last year. I’m not sure he’s going quite as well here and would want decent odds.

I don’t think the rest measure up here… I don’t think they can win: 5 Numerian [$12], 20 Makram [$26], 16 Crystal Pegasus [$71], 18 Tralee Rose [$81], 14 Sound [$101].

Betting strategy

Top pick Smokin’ Romans
Best value Alegron, Nonconformist

Smokin’ Romans just ticks so many boxes for this and with the weight, is definitely the one to beat and it’s a decent price too. At $4+ he’s a bet for me.

I also think Alegron and Nonconformist can put in a good showing and am keen to back them both at double figures.

Good luck!