Champion Bets Rugby League expert Steve Green previews the Australia v NZ semi final of the Rugby League World Cup. Read on for his predicted score and best bet.
The Aussies have done what everyone expected and won all of their games convincingly. They were a bit rusty against the Fijians, but since then they have been clinical in their defeat of Italy, Scotland and Lebanon.
None of that matters heading into this match, because the Kiwis are a huge step up. Although they have been below their best, the Kiwis have a long history of ambushing the Aussies in big games. One thing that Kiwi coach Maguire would be happy about is that his team head into this one without any serious injury concerns to key players. They also welcome back JWH7, so I’m expecting the Kiwis to come out firing early here and trying to get the jump on the Aussies.
For the Kangaroos, they head into this match having won their last 16 matches straight. I cannot remember the Aussies conceding a try that was not from a kick, so their defensive structure is by far the pinnacle. However they are not unbeatable and if the Kiwis are to win, I think they may have some success attacking the Latrell / Addo-Carr side of the defence.
These two guys are amazing attacking players but both have been caught out during the NRL season in defence. For Latrell, he is a fullback playing in the centres, so there is always the risk he gets exposed by making a poor read. For Addo-Carr, he is prone to coming off his wing looking for the miracle play, such as the intercept. So far this weakness has not been exposed, but with Brown and Hughes in the halves, the Kiwis have all the tools to do so.
Where the Kiwis are struggling is with Manu at #1 and their centres. Manu is not a natural fullback and although his running game is sublime, he’s not a great ball-playing fullback and so the Kiwis are not a great threat when it comes to executing clinical backline movements. And while Hiku and CNK are both very good players, both may struggle to create opportunities for their outside men against this rock-solid Aussie defensive line.
Another area I was concerned about for the Aussies was how their forward pack would handle the Kiwis, but so far the Aussie pack has shown no signs they will be outmuscled. Back rowers like Yeo, Murray, Martin and Crichton are all having great tournaments so far, while Carrigan, Tino, Cotter and Jake T are all strong defenders. But if there is one risk, it’s that Brandon Smith has a breakout performance and off the back of his scoots, guys like Tapine and The Fish tear the Aussies open up through the middle. That’s the Kiwis’ only real path to victory in my view – through the middle with simple, hard running and fast play-the-balls.
🇦🇺 Australia’s No.1 isn’t fazed by any world rankings ahead of Friday’s semi-final clash against New Zealand.
The Kangaroos are unbeaten in World Cup semi-finals, will they continue the run at Elland Road on Friday?#RLWC2021
— Rugby League World Cup 2021 (@RLWC2021) November 8, 2022
The Aussies will see this coming and the Grant / Hunt combination at #9 is well equipped to lock down the middle. Tedesco will also be comfortable pushing forward and ensuring he forms part of the line when required. His form continues to be amazing and with Munster and Cleary also great big-game players, I think the Aussies are looking good to progress to another World Cup final.
While I think the line is about right, I do think this game will be a close one early and the Kiwis will be right in this match for the opening 40 minutes. Their stellar starting pack and their spine will threaten the Aussies and it is only through the depth of the Aussies bench will they run away with it. I think the total points here is far too big. The Aussies rarely let more than two tries in a test match and so I think the total points should be under 40.
Australia vs NZ: Predicted score
Australia 25
NZ 12
Australia vs NZ: Best bet
Total points under 42.5 $1.88 with TopSport
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