It’s a fairly well-worn theory when it comes to AFL coaches.
When they get sacked, their team – which is generally struggling badly – responds immediately for a win in the next game.
Is this fact or fiction? Following this week’s departure of North Melbourne’s David Noble let’s run the numbers.
AFL coaches departing: results
Below is every in-season coaching change since the start of 2010… 16 examples, from Choco Williams losing his job at Port Adelaide through to Leon Cameron’s departure from GWS earlier this season.
Six of the 16 teams (37.5%) have won the following week. Though five of the sixteen were actually favourites going into their next match, so six winners is perhaps around what you’d expect.
| Year | Club | Departing coach | Round | Opponent | Result | H2H | Line | Covered |
| 2022 | GWS | L Cameron | 9 | Carlton | -30 | $1.68 | -4.5 | N |
| 2021 | Collingwood | N Buckley | 14 | Fremantle | -12 | $1.60 | -9.5 | N |
| 2019 | Fremantle | R Lyon | 23 | Port Adel | -43 | $4.00 | 27.5 | N |
| 2019 | St Kilda | A Richardson | 18 | Bulldogs | 27 | $3.25 | 14.5 | Y |
| 2019 | Carlton | B Bolton | 12 | Brisbane | 15 | $2.80 | 14.5 | Y |
| 2019 | North Melb | B Scott | 11 | Richmond | 37 | $3.20 | 15.5 | Y |
| 2017 | Gold Coast | R Eade | 21 | Brisbane | -58 | $2.75 | 15.5 | N |
| 2015 | Essendon | J Hird | 21 | Gold Coast | -2 | $2.50 | 10.5 | Y |
| 2015 | Carlton | M Malthouse | 9 | Sydney | -60 | $17.00 | 72.5 | Y |
| 2013 | Brisbane | M Voss | 21 | GWS | 60 | $1.06 | -61.5 | N |
| 2013 | Melbourne | M Neeld | 13 | St Kilda | -35 | $6.40 | 38.5 | Y |
| 2012 | Port Adel | M Primus | 20 | Hawthorn | -72 | $16.00 | 75.5 | Y |
| 2011 | Bulldogs | R Eade | 22 | Port Adel | 60 | $1.19 | -32.5 | Y |
| 2011 | Melbourne | D Bailey | 20 | Carlton | -76 | $6.70 | 41.5 | N |
| 2011 | Adelaide | N Craig | 19 | Port Adel | 32 | $1.64 | -7.5 | Y |
| 2010 | Port Adel | M Williams | 16 | Bulldogs | -36 | $5.17 | 31.5 | N |
Head-to-head, level stakes
Betting one unit at level stakes, you’d have outlaid 16 units and collected on Adelaide 2011 (1.64 units), Port 2011 (1.19), Brisbane 2013 (1.06), North 2019 (3.2), Carlton 2019 (2.8) and St Kilda 2019 (3.25).
That’s 13.14 units collected for a loss of 2.86 or 18% loss-on-turnover.
Head-to-head, proportionate stakes
Staking a bit smarter, we’ll take a look at betting each team to collect five units at the closing price.
| Year | Club | Departing coach | Round | Opponent | Result | H2H | Stake | Collect | P/L |
| 2022 | GWS | L Cameron | 9 | Carlton | -30 | $1.68 | 2.98 | – | -2.98 |
| 2021 | Collingwood | N Buckley | 14 | Fremantle | -12 | $1.60 | 3.13 | – | -3.13 |
| 2019 | Fremantle | R Lyon | 23 | Port Adel | -43 | $4.00 | 1.25 | – | -1.25 |
| 2019 | St Kilda | A Richardson | 18 | Bulldogs | 27 | $3.25 | 1.54 | 5.00 | 3.46 |
| 2019 | Carlton | B Bolton | 12 | Brisbane | 15 | $2.80 | 1.79 | 5.00 | 3.21 |
| 2019 | North Melb | B Scott | 11 | Richmond | 37 | $3.20 | 1.56 | 5.00 | 3.44 |
| 2017 | Gold Coast | R Eade | 21 | Brisbane | -58 | $2.75 | 1.82 | – | -1.82 |
| 2015 | Essendon | J Hird | 21 | Gold Coast | -2 | $2.50 | 2.00 | – | -2.00 |
| 2015 | Carlton | M Malthouse | 9 | Sydney | -60 | $17.00 | 0.29 | – | -0.29 |
| 2013 | Brisbane | M Voss | 21 | GWS | 60 | $1.06 | 4.72 | 5.00 | 0.28 |
| 2013 | Melbourne | M Neeld | 13 | St Kilda | -35 | $6.40 | 0.78 | – | -0.78 |
| 2012 | Port Adel | M Primus | 20 | Hawthorn | -72 | $16.00 | 0.31 | – | -0.31 |
| 2011 | Bulldogs | R Eade | 22 | Port Adel | 60 | $1.19 | 4.20 | 5.00 | 0.80 |
| 2011 | Melbourne | D Bailey | 20 | Carlton | -76 | $6.70 | 0.75 | – | -0.75 |
| 2011 | Adelaide | N Craig | 19 | Port Adel | 32 | $1.64 | 3.05 | 5.00 | 1.95 |
| 2010 | Port Adel | M Williams | 16 | Bulldogs | -36 | $5.17 | 0.97 | – | -0.97 |
That gives us 31.1 units staked in total, for a loss of 1.1 units at 3.6% LoT. Better.
Line betting
Although only six of the 16 teams we’ve looked at won, 9 of the 16 covered the line. At a strike-rate of 56%, that could be an edge!
Betting a unit each at $1.90 lines, you’d have staked 16 units and collected 17.1 units, for a profit of 1.1 units at 6.9% PoT!
We’ve cracked it… we’re rich!
Back to reality though… of course, the biggest problem with coach sackings is the lack of data – we’ve gone back over twelve seasons and there are only 16 events to look at. That’s far from enough to have faith in the numbers.
North Melbourne are at $8 with TopSport against Richmond this week, with the line currently at +42.5 points.
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