Read on for AFL Round 17 early mail and value betting leans for each game…
AFL Round 17: Geelong v Melbourne, Thursday night
Early prediction: Game of the season so far
The value: Dees H2H at TopSport
- Melbourne is back on track with two strong wins following a midseason lull
- They get some key players back including Luke Jackson and captain Max Gawn
- Cats are playing well but in a big game like this will definitely miss intercept king Tom Stewart
AFL Round 17: Sydney v Bulldogs, Friday night
Early prediction: Sydney
The value: Sydney -8.5 at TopSport
- Sydney is struggling to win two in a row this season
- Sydney was run over by a rampaging Essendon last week
- Bulldogs were well beaten by Brisbane last week
AFL Round 17: Collingwood v North Melbourne, Saturday afternoon
Early prediction: Collingwood
The value: Collingwood -57.5 at TopSport
- Things are horrible for North and they’re not about to get better
- North just cannot score, averaging 48 points per game over the past ten weeks
- Pies in good touch with six straight wins and finally get a chance to belt a team
Gold Coast v Richmond, Saturday afternoon
Early prediction: Close game
The value: Over 166.5 at TopSport
- Total points scored in Richmond games away from the MCG this season: 206, 221, 183, 201
- Suns had recorded three straight wins prior to losing their last two by under a goal
- Tigers have won 7 of their last 9 and both losses were very close
St Kilda v Fremantle, Saturday night
Early prediction: Close
The value: St Kilda H2H at TopSport
- 4 of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 10pts or less
- St Kilda were surprise winners over Carlton last week after losing three in a row
- Freo faltered late against Port but fell over the line after leading by 40pts
Port Adelaide v GWS, Saturday night
Early prediction: Close
The value: GWS +16.5 at TopSport
- GWS have covered 5 of their last 6 lines after a shocking start to the season
- GWS have won the last three meetings between the teams in Adelaide
- Port Adelaide’s lack of a ruckman is starting to bite
AFL Round 17: Brisbane v Essendon, Sunday afternoon
Early prediction: Lions easy
The value: Brisbane -28.5 at TopSport
- Brisbane has an exceptional record at the Gabbatoir, winning 16 of their last 17 home games
- The Bombers were good against the Swans last week but haven’t played well in consecutive weeks all season
- Essendon’s leaky defence looks likely to struggle against a potent Brisbane attack
Hawthorn v Adelaide, Sunday afternoon
Early prediction: Hawks
The value: Hawthorn -10.5 at TopSport
- Hawthorn have lost five in a row
- Adelaide have lost 8 of the last 10, winning only against a weak West Coast and an awful North Melbourne in that time
- In Melbourne, Hawks should have the edge
West Coast v Carlton, Sunday afternoon
Early prediction: Close
The value: West Coast +18.5 at TopSport
- Still hard to trust West Coast, though they’ve perhaps improved a little
- West Coast have actually covered their last four betting lines – the market has overcorrected
- West Coast have won the past seven meetings between the clubs
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