Empire Rose Stakes: Pro punter preview, video, top pick and value play

The fillies and mares clash over the Flemington mile on Derby Day in the Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes, worth $1 million.

Empire Rose Stakes 2022: Pro punter preview

Track It’s been given out as a Soft 7 early but you’d think it’ll be better than that because of the drainage. I’d say it’ll race as a Soft 5 or thereabouts, so in reasonable condition but with some give in it.

Speed The pace isn’t too bad here but there’s really no natural leader unless Princess Jenni gets a run.

📺 Video preview

Runner-by-runner

Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.

14 La Crique [$2.35] is the Kiwi mare and is hard to get a line on as she’s never raced here. I can get a formline from horses that have come to Australia, and that actually puts her right in the range where the market has her. I’ve watched her and she certainly ticks a lot of boxes: she has winning ways, she races on the pace, she has a turn of foot and she gets McDonald on here. I’m happy to mark her at whatever price the market has her. I think it’ll start clear favourite

16 She’s Licketysplit [$6.50] is racing well. She’s the only three-year-old in the race, and as a group they have a good record in this race. She can take up a position here and is one of the good dangers to the favourite.

2 Nimalee [$9.50] ran well three starts back and has had excuses at the last two starts. She races on the pace and wasn’t beaten far in this race last year. She’s got some chance at the price.

7 Palaisipan [$11] is racing consistently. Ran well here last start in the Tristarc and is a chance at odds.

1 Icebath [$14] was narrowly beaten in this race last year. She has mixed form this prep. Her best runs look to be on dry ground. It’s hard to gauge where she’s at, but she still has some chance given her quality.

3 Kissonallforcheeks [$18] won well here at Flemington over 1400m three starts back. She’s had excuses over the past two starts. Her chances would be enhanced with a drier track.

9 Belle Plaisir [$18] is racing honestly and comes here fourth-up and out to the mile, which looks to suit. Rough chance.

17 My Whisper [$18] ran well at The Valley and is on the quick backup here. A chance at odds.

4 Kiku [$21] ran well two starts ago. I’m happy to forgive the last start in the Epsom on the really wet track. Consistent horse, a chance at odds.

12 Yearning [$21] put in a terrific run here when resuming then wasn’t really suited second-up. She’s third-up here at her favourite distance and will be strong late.

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13 Daisies [$21] had an okay win two starts ago at The Valley. I’m happy to forgive her last start. She’s good around this distance range and can get a cheap run from the draw. I think she just lacks the class of a few others here. Rough chance.

5 Excelida [$26] produced a peak figure here two starts back to win over 1400m. She gets the blinkers here for the first time. She’ll be strong late but is only a rough chance in this class.

19 Pride Of Jenni [$26] is drawn out wide. She’s a rough chance here but is better suited back in grade.

15 Elusive Express [$34] is racing well. I’m happy to forgive last trip on the really wet ground. The trip suits here. Rough chance.

6 Mirra Vision [$41] has had two runs back for the prep. She’s third-up now and gets the blinkers on. She can run to her best here which would give her a rough chance.

8 Chaillot [$51] puts in her best runs when fresh. She’s changed hands since she last ran. She had a run on a heavy track two starts back which was really no guide. She’d have to run to her best here to be a good winning chance, and that might be past her.

18 Atishu [$41] and 20 Cliff’s Art [$91] aren’t good enough to figure here.

Betting strategy

Top pick La Crique
Value play Yearning

As I said, we don’t have an exact line of La Crique but she ticks a hell of a lot of boxes and I’m happy to go with the market. For something at odds, I think Yearning is worth a small play the price… she’ll be getting home late.