It’s Melbourne Cup week’s three-year-old classic and the feature on the opening day, the $2 million Victoria Derby. The young horses are tested over the 2500 metre course at Flemington.
Victoria Derby 2022: Pro punter preview
Track It’s been given out as a Soft 7 early but you’d think it’ll be better than that because of the drainage. I’d say it’ll race as a Soft 5 or thereabouts, so in reasonable condition but with some give in it.
Speed The pace is okay here. It’s a big field. Mr Maestro has to go forward from the outside which will inject some speed into the race, so it’ll be genuinely run.
📺 Video preview
Runner-by-runner
Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.
2 Berkeley Square [$3.30] is on the quick back-up from winning the Moonee Valley Vase last week, where I thought he was really strong late.. He’s stoutly bred so the trip should be fine and he’s better suited here on the big track for mine. The horse to beat.
1 Sharp ’N’ Smart [$3.50] is undefeated this prep and on the quick back-up from winning the Spring Champion last week. He gets James McDonald here and looks a genuine stayer. A terrific chance.
4 Mr Maestro [$6.50] has won his past three, but he wasn’t as impressive last time out at Caulfield. He’s drawn outside here so will have to go forward in a hurry… it’s a big ask for him to go to a new level and win with that to deal with.
5 Pericles [$7] ran well last week in the Moonee Valley Vase when jumping significantly in distance. He loses Jamie Kah here and gets William Buick, who has had 17 rides here in eight years. He’s a good chance but I would’ve preferred a local jockey.
10 Muramasa [$14] ran well in the lead-up race at Caulfield behind Mr Maestro. He’d need to go to a new level here to win this. Just a rough chance.
8 Foujita San [$20] has had a funny preparation. He hasn’t raced past 1600m and is coming straight out of the Caulfield Guineas, which is the same path as last year’s Derby winner Hitotsu. I certainly don’t think he’s as good as Hitotsu, however. I’d want better odds to back him.
We caught up with trainer Trent @busuttin ahead of this weekend’s Group 1 @penfolds Victoria Derby. He discusses his two chances in the race, Muramasa and Berardino. The trainer won the race in 2011 with Sangster and there is a strong kiwi flavour this weekend! #Flemington pic.twitter.com/Q5cYv4z0O9
— Victoria Racing Club (@FlemingtonVRC) October 26, 2022
6 Grand Pierro [$26] looks a natural stayer. He won the Geelong Classic leading into this, but that form doesn’t generally hold up. Just a very rough chance.
As it often can, I think this race has a very long tail. I can’t see the rest getting to the level required to win this: 7 Manzoice [$20], 13 Distrustful Award [$31], 12 Berardino [$41], 9 Skyphios [$51], 15 King’s Crossing [$51], 17 Aberfeldie Boy [$71], 11 Fearless Knight [$81], 14 Highland Blaze [$91], 16 Lehndorf [$101].
Betting strategy
Two-horse strategy
Berkeley Square
Sharp ‘N’ Smart
I have the two top picks well out in front and really, it’s pretty close to a two-horse race for mine. I have Berkeley Square ahead but really, with them both at better than $3, I’m happy to back them both and am very confident that will deliver a result.
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