Rugby League World Cup Final: Australia v Samoa | Preview & Best Bet

Champion Bets Rugby League expert Steve Green previews the final of the Rugby League World Cup between Australia and Samoa. Read on for his predicted score and best bet!

Rugby League World Cup Final: Australia v Samoa

I underestimated the Samoan team and despite the heroic efforts to make the Final of the World Cup, the punters on Betfair are still only giving the Samoans about a 10% chance of pulling off an upset.

But the Samoans have got here by going through the Tongans and the English, being significant underdogs in both matches. So the betting odds will not concern the Samoan team and with some of the best in-form players in the tournament, the Samoan backs will rate their chances of causing a boilover in this match.

The Samoans core group of Panthers players provides them with the confidence they possess. Luai, Crichton, May and To’o have carried through their NRL Premiership form into the World Cup and have been instrumental in the Samoan run. Suaali’i has found his feet and although he still lacks the passing game needed to be an elite fullback, his running game is amazing and that starts the Samoan sets with momentum. Then with the likes of May and To’o backed up by experienced forwards like Paulo, Papi and Sua, the Samoan team’s go-forward has been awesome in their past two encounters.

I have also been amazed at the form of guys like Ligi Sao and Tim Lafai. These guys have come into the squad due to injuries, but have lifted and been keen players for the Samoans in their run into the final.

However, despite all of the above, it does feel as if this team is running on fumes. They are nearly totally out of players and with Nu Brown suffering a concussion, they are facing a crisis at the number 9 spot. Contrast this to the Aussies, who have two world class players at 9 in Grant and Hunt.

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Samoa will play in their first ever Rugby League World Cup final on Saturday – can the side produce more heroics to lift the trophy at Old Trafford?#RLWC2021 pic.twitter.com/Q7dLsozFNG

— Rugby League World Cup 2021 (@RLWC2021) November 16, 2022

While the Aussie number 7 has copped a lot of grief, I really think Cleary has been harshly judged. He has not done anything wrong in attack, his defence has been rock solid and his connection with his outside men is improving each game. If anything, Munster’s form has been a little off in recent weeks, but I think Cleary and Munster will step up when it matters this weekend.

Tedesco has been relatively well contained, but his work rate and ability to clean up at the back is second-to-none. Latrell is another guy that has been criticised for his lack of impact, but I thought his defensive aggression was amazing against the Kiwis, while Wighton looked dangerous with ball in hand, setting up a key try for the ever-reliable Holmes.

The only real risk the Aussies have is their front row, which as I said at the outset, was the one aspect of this squad that was not rock solid. Jake T and RCG did not provide the best start against the Kiwis and the Samoans will rate their chances in the middle of dominating the Aussies. But Big Tino and Carrigan have been doing their job off the bench and Coach Mal has the option of bringing in Cotter if he wants to introduce some better leg speed onto the bench (which is what he should do against this big Samoan pack!).

Australia vs NZ: Predicted score

Australia 25
NZ 12

Australia vs NZ: Best bet

On my ratings, this Aussie team is better than the Samoans across the park and I think the line is probably a touch too small – however the Aussies are likely to try and grind out a win here, so if they are up by 18 with 20 minutes remaining, I think they will be likely to play it safe and wind down the time. Taking on such a big line in a final is always a bit of a risk and I am not keen to take on such a big line.

Where I do think there is some value, is in the total points market. I think the Australians will be hard to penetrate by this Samoan team, and the total points of 45.5. The Australian’s attack has not been as ruthless against the better teams and it has been a defensive-focussed World Cup campaign so far, with Australian conceding an average of 6.4 points per game. I think they will keep the Samoans to 12 points of less and if the Aussies win by 18, then I think the total points is a little bit too big here.

Best Bet:

Total points under 45.5 $1.80 with TopSport

$1.80